Bloomberg believes that for many emerging countries, the key to reducing pollution is the transformation of electric mobility to electric motorcycles and electric scooters.
In the recent stock market turmoil, you may not have noticed that China's smart city travel solution provider, Niutian Technology, is planning to go public in the US. Indeed, compared to Tesla's financing of billions of dollars, it is not enough for Niu Technology to go to the US to list billion yuan of financing. You may have overlooked the fact that two-wheeled electric vehicle technology led by Niu Technology will change the smart city travel, as Elon Musk dreams.
Until now, the attractiveness of two-wheeled electric vehicles is still far less than that of electric vehicles. However, all this is changing. In emerging markets in Asia, especially in India, two-wheelers (mainly motorcycles) account for 76% of road vehicles and account for 30% of their national air pollution sources. In several of Asia's largest economies, households with two-wheelers account for more than 80%. Therefore, to solve the global air pollution problem, it means that it is necessary to reduce the emissions from the two-wheeler. Like electric vehicles, two-wheel electric vehicles are also recognized by the market as a trend in the industry.
Some people may think that electric vehicles will directly replace the needs of two-wheelers, but this is not the case. There are several reasons. First, the cost is the biggest obstacle. A brand new entry-level electric car sells for more than 200,000 yuan, while a two-wheeled electric car sells for less than 5,000 yuan. Secondly, the traffic situation is also a big problem, and the serious traffic congestion in the metropolis is getting worse. Therefore, office workers who have the ability to buy a car often tend to use two-wheeled electric vehicles or bicycles to travel. In addition, parking problems are also widespread. Beijing's car ownership is about twice that of its parking lot, and this ratio is likely to continue to grow. Such problems are common in all developing countries, and rising housing prices have made this phenomenon even more severe, especially in downtown areas.
For the rising middle class, they are also happy to accept two-wheeled electric vehicles as long as the price is right and the charging is convenient. In China, two-wheel electric vehicles are gradually replacing motorcycles, thanks to increasingly strict exhaust emission standards. These cars are not only cheap, but also different from electric cars, which use batteries that can be charged at home or in the office. Today, China's two-wheel electric vehicle ownership has reached 200 million, and it is still increasing by 30 million vehicles per year.
At present, most of the domestic two-wheel electric vehicles are driven by bulky lead-acid batteries. However, due to the short service life of lead-acid batteries and narrow application range, the functions provided by two-wheel electric vehicles are still limited. In order to adapt to the longer-term, more stable and lighter consumer trends of two-wheeled electric vehicles, it needs a more reliable lithium-ion battery, which is similar to the battery that drives the iPhone series and the Tesla series.
The replacement of lead-acid batteries by lithium batteries is a trend in any industry, but it has not yet developed on two-wheel electric vehicles. The most important reason is price. In general, the cost of lithium batteries can cause the related vehicles to be too expensive in the market. However, with the development of technology, the cost of lithium batteries will inevitably decline. Bloomberg New Energy Finance expects that the price of lithium battery electric vehicles will be reduced by 73% by 2030. Although the cost of lithium batteries will still be higher than that of lead-acid batteries by that time, it is certain that the price difference between the two will be greatly reduced, so that the price of lithium battery electric vehicles is within the reach of the public. This is the same as the lithium battery can replace lead-acid batteries in other industries.
In the long run, if such an account is accounted for: the life of lithium batteries is generally longer than that of lead-acid batteries, the overall cost of users' maintenance costs and replacement costs will be much less than that of two-wheel electric vehicles with lead-acid batteries. Then the lithium battery electric car purchase price is more expensive and it becomes less important.
The lack of charging stations is also a big problem, which has been plaguing users of two-wheel electric vehicles. For users of commercial two-wheeled electric vehicles, especially those who often need to drive long distances, such as express delivery and take-away staff, this problem is particularly troublesome.
Finally, just as governments support and promote the transformation of gasoline vehicles into electric vehicles, they will also support and promote the development of the two-wheel electric vehicle industry. In the future, government departments will inevitably continue to introduce a series of regulations aimed at reducing traffic pollution.